Kyiv, Ukraine – Looking like a tiny desktop tower with wing-like solar panels, the Obria Nano satellite is a small step that could herald a giant leap for Ukraine’s military.

Launched by Himera, a Ukrainian company known for ergonomic military radios, and GomSpace, a Danish small-satellite manufacturer, the first Obria Nano could eventually grow into Kyiv’s own constellation of military satellites, its creators hope.

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The nanosatellite marks Ukraine’s “first historical step toward establishing resilient and sovereign satellite communications capabilities,” the company said on October 27, almost four weeks after the Obria Nano had reached orbit.

In mid-October, Kyiv also signed up two Finnish companies, the Nokia telecoms giant and the ICEYE space startup that owns a “self-illuminating” radar technology for obtaining high-resolution satellite imagery in any weather, to look into developing a network of military satellites.

Kyiv’s efforts are rooted in one concern – the nearly total dependence of Ukraine’s military communications on SpaceX, Elon Musk’s satellite communications giant that operates Starlink, a constellation of more than 10,000 low-orbit satellites.

On Thursday, the speeds of Starlink and Starshield, its military component operated by the Pentagon, were limited for Ukraine, leading to “significant disruptions” of their operation along the front line, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Before this, Starlink was also disrupted last month.

Kyiv realises that “it’s possible to create an absolutely new system, but it will take several years,” Anatoly Zak, a US-based space expert, told Al Jazeera. “In the nearest year or two, Starlink and [its military-grade component] Starshield are absolutely necessary.”

Since 2022, Ukraine developed a love-and-hate relationship with Musk, his volatility, shifting loyalties and political demands.

“Musk’s mood swings play a significant role,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera. “There were times when Musk helped Ukraine, and times of very negative reactions.”

Ukrainians hailed Musk’s decision to provide Starlink services and modems to Ukraine free of charge. The military, hospitals and government agencies operating critical infrastructure quickly made a backbone of their communications.

But in late 2022, Musk refused to activate Starlink coverage in Russia-occupied areas, slowing down or stopping Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive.

The world’s wealthiest man also said that Kyiv should remain “politically neutral” in the future, officially cede Crimea to Moscow and conduct United Nations-supervised referendums on Russia-occupied territories.

“If you want to understand what Russia has done here, come to Ukraine and you will see it all for yourself,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in response. “And then you will tell me how to end this war, who started it and when it can be ended.”

Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly smuggled thousands of Starlink terminals and used them for comms and drone attacks. This February, Musk put an end to the practice by allowing only certified modems to operate in Ukraine.

Kyiv’s attempts to find an alternative to Starlink followed the October 14-24 speed limits for Ukrainian drones imposed without prior warning by Starlink and Starshield.

Drones and drone interceptors moving faster than 60km/h (37mph) lost signal and could no longer reach their targets.

Musk accused the Pentagon of limiting the speed and admitted that the decision was his only after The Wall Street Journal reported that Musk had personally authorised the slowdown.

Both Musk and Kyiv realise that Starlink and Starshield are the Ukrainian military’s survival tool.

When it comes to his highly publicised position towards Ukraine, Musk has to balance his own emotional outbursts and the interests of SpaceX, the crown jewel of his business empire that comprises two-fifths of his net worth, analyst Fesenko said.

“If he tries to throw Ukraine under the bus, it may work as very negative advertising for his business, including the Starlink system,” Fesenko said.

Russia’s bid to create military satellites

Another factor is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculated flattery towards Musk – on October 28, he called him a “real genius”.

“Putin apparently wants to use the methods he’s used towards [US President Donald] Trump – flattery, unlimited flattery,” Fesenko said.

Putin mentioned Musk while talking about Russia’s attempts to create its own version of Starlink.

“We are in close contact with our American partners – including Mr Musk – because it’s very important, in orbit, not to get in each other’s way and to maintain a certain level of discipline and order,” Putin said.

The attempts have not been very successful so far.

The military satellites for the upcoming Rassvet (Dawn) constellation turned out to be Qianfan satellites, which are similar to first-generation Starlink satellites and manufactured in China.

Bureau 1440, a Kremlin-controlled space company that runs the Rassvet system, plans to have 900 satellites in orbit by 2035.

In August, the Institute for the Study of War, an international military think tank, claimed that more than a third of Rassvet satellites failed to reach “sustainable operational altitudes”.

By early November, Moscow lost two of the 32 Rassvet 3 satellites launched in the past seven months.

The second satellite that burned in the Earth’s atmosphere on November 1, failed to launch its propulsion to correct its position, according to The Defence Express, a Ukrainian military publication.

Ukraine can also try negotiating a switch to Starlink’s rivals, but they are smaller and less effective.

The US-based Iridium has 66 satellites flying at about 800km (497 miles) above Earth.

OneWeb, operated by the French Eutelsat company, has up to 650 satellites that orbit the Earth at 1,200 kilometres (746 miles). But it is not authorised to be used for military drone strikes.

An average terminal in Ukraine sees five dozen Starlink satellites simultaneously – and only 11 OneWeb satellites. A light, compact Starlink terminal costs up to $500; a much heavier and bulkier OneWeb one costs $9,000.

According to Pavel Luzin, a space and military analyst with the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank in Washington, DC, Kyiv has two options to get its own satellites.

It could work towards heavy and pricey satellites in geosynchronous orbit – or Earth-centred – that could serve for up to 20 years and cover all of Ukraine’s military needs.

Or option two is a focus on launching a system of hundreds of cheaper low-orbit satellites that will need propulsion engines to maintain position, but they will eventually fall down because of contact with the upper atmosphere, and will constantly need to be replaced, he said.

Kyiv can also use much cheaper alternatives such as stratostats or stratospheric drones that serve as “quasi-satellites,” he told Al Jazeera.

A satellite fleet necessary to provide coordinates to long-range drones makes each drone strike pricier, and AI-driven drones that can be “taught” to recognise their targets could bring the price down – and make the satellites unnecessary.

The development of ballistic missiles is another alternative, because they do not need satellite connection but can cause damage equal to the boom from several drones that have gotten through Russia’s air defence system, he said.

“Such decisions are made with all calculations considered, not because Starlink – that depends on current political trends in Washington – needs to be replaced with an alternative,” Luzin said.

“I don’t rule out that Ukraine won’t have to create any alternatives, because SpaceX is definitely interested – even if someone in the company doesn’t realise that – in Ukraine using it further,” he said.