Washington, DC – Scenes of jubilation and tearful reunions are unfolding across the Gaza Strip, as hundreds of thousands of displaced people march back to their homes in the north of the territory.

A fragile ceasefire after 15 months of war in Gaza has made the return possible. But as rights advocates hail a rare case of reverse displacement in Palestinian history, United States President Donald Trump has called for transferring Gaza’s entire population to Egypt and Jordan.

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“You’re talking about probably a million and a half people,” Trump told reporters. “We just clean out that whole thing and say: ‘You know, it’s over.’”

Analysts say Trump’s proposal would amount to ethnic cleansing, but it is unlikely to materialise, given the geopolitical realities in the region.

Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel programme at the Arab Center Washington DC, said Trump’s “outrageous” statement should be condemned for violating all norms and basic rights.

He added, however, it should also be taken with a degree of scepticism.

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“Trump says all kinds of things,” Munayyer explained. “Sometimes, they’re things that he means. Sometimes, they’re things that he doesn’t mean. Sometimes, they’re things that he heard in a conversation that he had five minutes ago. Sometimes, they’re things that he thinks he heard but misunderstood.”

Munayyer said the idea of ethnically cleansing Gaza is not new and has been circulating since the war broke out in October 2023.

But talks of displacing Palestinians into Egypt, the only Arab country that borders the territory, have been swiftly shut down by Cairo. Jordan, which sits next to the occupied West Bank, also rejected mass displacement.

Both countries have reiterated their positions after Trump’s recent comments.

“This is not merely about how these countries feel about Palestine or what they think of the Israeli-Palestinian issue,” Munayyer said.

“It’s also about their own national security concerns — existential national security concerns, which really can’t be minimised in this discussion.”

Egypt and Jordan say no

On Wednesday, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi forcefully stressed that Egypt would not take part in any campaign to remove Palestinians from Gaza, citing the “injustice” of displacement as well as Egyptian security.

“I want to assure the Egyptian people that leniency or enabling violations of Egypt’s national security will not be allowed,” he said.

El-Sisi added that, if he were to consider accepting the displacement of Palestinians, the Egyptian people would take to the streets to warn him against the move.

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“I say clearly: The displacement of the Palestinian people from their land is an injustice that we will not participate in,” he said.

Jordan echoed that stance, with Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi saying that the Hashemite kingdom’s position is “irreversible and unchanged”.

While Trump has gained a reputation for strong-arming other countries, analysts say Egypt and Jordan have crucial interests that would make accepting displaced people from Gaza a non-starter.

Both governments fear a backlash from their populations, which would view any role in ethnic cleansing as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, which remains a central issue in the region.

Moreover, the influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, including possibly thousands of battle-hardened fighters, could destabilise political, economic and security structures in Egypt and Jordan, experts told Al Jazeera.

Nancy Okail, president of the Center for International Policy, a US-based think tank, said Trump’s comments do not appear to be based on any real strategy.

“The Egyptian government, and particularly President el-Sisi, have been very clear and very firm that this is a no-go; it’s a red line,” Okail said. “There is no way that this would be accepted.”

She added that Trump, a self-described dealmaker, may try to use a carrot-and-stick approach to convince Egypt to accept Palestinians from Gaza, but el-Sisi would not even entertain the idea.

“First of all, it’s a capacity issue. It’s also a legitimacy issue. And most importantly, it’s a direct threat to the stability of the country,” Okail said.

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Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Jordan faces similar issues with mass displacement.

While people “should be concerned” about Trump’s proposal, Sheline said the US president “may not have fully considered the repercussions” of this policy for Jordan and the entire region.

“It’s so maddening because I hear this so frequently, people saying: ‘Why don’t other countries just take them, or why don’t they just leave?’ Well, why doesn’t Israel just stop trying to kill them? That’s the real question,” Sheline told Al Jazeera.

Trump’s statement

The fallout started on Saturday when Trump stunned the Middle East with an explicit call for transferring Gaza’s population out of the devastated strip.

“I’d like Egypt to take people, and I’d like Jordan to take people,” Trump said.

He justified his suggestion by describing the devastation in Gaza, after more than a year of nonstop Israeli bombardment.

“It’s literally a demolition site right now. Almost everything’s demolished, and people are dying there,” Trump said. “So, I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing in a different location, where they can maybe live in peace for a change.”

He said the displacement can be temporary or “long term”.

Despite the backlash, Trump doubled down on his proposal on Monday, claiming that he spoke to Egypt’s el-Sisi about the matter.

“I wish he would take some [Palestinians],” Trump said. “We helped them a lot, and I’m sure he’d help us.”

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Egypt is a top recipient of US aid. But neither the White House nor the Egyptian presidency released a readout of the supposed call between Trump and el-Sisi.

US ‘not restrained’ by law

Trump’s remarks mark a reversal of his predecessor Joe Biden’s stated policy of rejecting the permanent removal of Palestinians from Gaza.

Still, in October 2023, early in the war, a funding request under Biden floated the possibility of mass displacement.

A White House letter to Congress suggested aid to Israel “would support displaced and conflict-affected civilians, including Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank” and “address potential needs of Gazans fleeing to neighboring countries”.

Sheline said that, in an “alternative universe” where Arab countries might have agreed to take in displaced Palestinians, the Biden administration would have endorsed mass removal of the population from Gaza.

“International law has not restrained the United States nor Israel when it comes to the Palestinians — really ever, and especially under the previous administration,” said Sheline, who resigned from the US State Department in protest of its Gaza policy.

She pointed out that US laws require the country to sever military aid to countries that commit human rights abuses.

“Under Biden, it was clear that he had no intention of complying with either international or with US laws that would have required the US to cut off security assistance to Israel.”

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Ethnic cleansing can be considered both a war crime and a crime against humanity — and critics say Trump’s suggestion appears to fit the description.

In 1994, United Nations experts defined ethnic cleansing as “a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror-inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas”.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich welcomed Trump’s comments on Monday, saying he is working with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rest of the cabinet to “prepare an operational plan and ensure the realisation of President Trump’s vision”.

Munayyer said Israel has demonstrated with its actions that it wants to depopulate Gaza.

“It’s one thing to carry out ethnic cleansing by sending in trucks and loading people up and then forcing them out at gunpoint,” he said.

“Another way to do it is to simply destroy everything there, make it uninhabitable and then essentially force the issue by making living there impossible. And I think this has been an objective of the Israelis all along.”

Gaza’s future

Munayyer stressed that the reconstruction of Gaza requires political will and a permanent ceasefire, not the displacement of its population.

“The people have been there throughout the genocide,” he said. “They’re not at any greater danger of death now that the bombs have stopped dropping on them. It’s far from an ideal situation. But if you wanted to actually begin reconstruction and provide temporary housing and shelter and utilities to these folks while reconstruction is going on, it’s not like going to Mars.”

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Gaza is still in the first stage of the truce, which started on January 19 and will last 42 days. The future of the territory, including reconstruction plans, will not be finalised until the second and third parts of the deal.

But major questions remain over who will govern Gaza. Israel and the US have said they will not allow Hamas to remain in power.

Last month, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented a “day after” plan for Gaza that would see other countries send troops to staff an interim security force, paving the way for a “fully reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern the territory.

However, it’s not clear whether Hamas would accept foreign troops in Gaza. Moreover, Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected handing the territory to the PA, despite its close security coordination with Israeli forces in the West Bank.

Okail said Palestinian voices are missing from the conversation about the future of Gaza, stressing that the question of who governs the Palestinian territories should not be dictated by the US, Israel or regional powers.

“Without resistance and dictating who governs and who runs for elections, Palestinians have an opportunity. They have the will and they have the capacity to participate in a political process,” she said.