The National Electoral Council (CNE) of Honduras called for “patience” on Tuesday as it launched a manual count of votes in one of the closest presidential elections the country has seen in more than a decade – a contest over which US President Donald Trump has threatened to cut off aid to the country.

Vote counting has been held up by technical difficulties with the results website. As of the latest count in the November 30 election, right-wing candidate Nasry Asfura was said to be holding a narrow lead, though the race remains effectively a “technical tie” and no official winner has yet been declared.

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Trump has publicly endorsed Asfura and threatened to cut off United States aid to Honduras if his preferred candidate does not win. He has also accused CNE of “trying to change” the outcome by calling a “technical tie” at this stage, and doubled down on vague threats of retaliation in posts published on his Truth Social platform.

Observers claim this is the latest example of Trump’s attempts to meddle with the internal affairs of other countries – several of which are in South America.

Who are the main candidates, and what do they stand for?

Asfura, 67, from the right-wing National Party of Honduras, has campaigned on a promise of economic stability, foreign investment and a tougher security stance.

Trump has thrown his support behind Asfura, calling him the “only real friend of Freedom in Honduras” in a Truth Social post and urging people to vote for him.

Asfura’s main rival, 72-year-old Salvador Nasralla, is running under the Liberal Party banner and positions himself as a centrist reformer focused on restoring the rule of law and on battling corruption.

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The candidate for the left-wing ruling party, Liberty and Refoundation, Rixi Moncada, presents herself as the defender of President Xiomara Castro’s left-leaning legacy.

Moncada, 60, has proposed “democratising the economy” by expanding credit, strengthening national production, and building an economic model that generates “real opportunities for everyone”. She has also proposed changes to the Constitution to underpin a judicial overhaul in an effort to battle corruption.

“Our fight against corruption is head-on and without fear. To reform the justice system, there is only one way: to have a majority in Congress,” Moncada said during the campaign.

Throughout the campaign, polling has suggested a fragmented electorate with no clear favourite, setting the stage for the tight count now unfolding.

How has Trump involved himself in this election?

Trump pledged that there would be “hell to pay” in Honduras if election officials tampered with the results of the vote. He has threatened to cut off US aid to the country if his favoured, right-wing candidate does not win.

Trump has not specified the precise aid he would suspend, but the US provides Honduras, which has a population of around 11 million, with a substantial package of economic, development and security assistance each year.

The US president has also shown favour to Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras and member of the country’s right-wing National Party, by pardoning his US drug conviction and releasing him from a 45-year jail sentence. On Monday, Hernandez was released from the high-security facility of USP Hazelton in West Virginia in the US.

He was extradited to the US in 2022 and was found guilty of conspiring to import cocaine to the US, and of possessing machine guns, in 2024. Justifying his decision to pardon him, Trump said Hernandez had been “treated very harshly and unfairly” in a social media post on Friday.

What aid does the US provide to Honduras?

In 2024, the US provided just under $193.5m in aid to Honduras, according to government data.

Much of that flowed via the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and through programmes aimed at supporting small businesses, strengthening local governance, improving the agricultural sector and expanding education and health services, according to the US State Department’s website. About $10m was paid directly to the Honduran government.

USAID was closed down by the Trump administration earlier this year. It is unclear how that portion of aid would be distributed in the future.

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Another major pillar is security cooperation through the US State Department and the Central America Regional Security Initiative, which trains police, supports anti-drug operations, and funds youth and community-violence-prevention initiatives.

These programmes are deeply embedded in Honduras’s security and social infrastructure. A sudden cutoff could disrupt everything from the police’s ability to operate to the basic work NGOs are able to carry out, according to experts.

Just how would Honduras be affected if Trump cuts off aid?

For one of the poorest countries in the region – and a major source of migration to the US – aid is far from just symbolic. It supports critical state functions in areas where violence, poverty and climate disasters drive migration.

Experts and rights groups warned earlier this year that abrupt cuts to funding to Honduras would likely worsen insecurity, weaken already strained public services and accelerate migration.

Nearly 30,000 Honduran people have been deported from the US since Trump returned to office in January, according to Honduran government data. The clampdown has dealt a severe blow to the country, where remittances from workers overseas represented about 25 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year.

Is this another instance of Trump meddling in the affairs of countries in South America?

Trump’s comments about the election in Honduras fit a broader pattern observers say they have seen this year. He has publicly pressured governments or sided with specific opposition parties in several countries, most obviously in Venezuela.

In Venezuela, Trump has been accused of angling for a “regime change” against President Nicolas Maduro’s government, via a military campaign of strikes on Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific that the Trump administration claims are trafficking drugs.

Since September 2, US forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats, killing more than 80 people. Trump says he has not ruled out military action by land as well. The US has not shown evidence of drug trafficking, however.

The US has also built up a huge military presence in the Caribbean, claiming this is necessary for national security and to push back an “invasion” by Venezuelan drug gangs.

Maduro has accused the US government of “fabricating a new eternal war” against him.

In Brazil, Trump publicly questioned the legitimacy of criminal coup charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro earlier this year, bolstering Bolsonaro’s claims of political persecution and suggesting the country’s courts were being used to sideline a right-wing ally of the US. Bolsonaro was ultimately sentenced to 27 years in prison.

The US president’s comments were heavily criticised by Brazilian lawmakers, who claim he is attempting to delegitimise their institutions.

This year, Trump has also said Mexico is being “run by the cartels” and has blamed the Mexican government for fentanyl trafficking. He has threatened to increase trade tariffs if the government does not extradite anyone involved, and has also hinted at US military action.

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In Argentina, Trump has lavished praise on right-wing, populist President Javier Milei and said the US would not “waste our time” with helping Argentina if Milei’s party does not win future elections. A presidential election is not due in Argentina until 2027, but Trump said if “a socialist wins” then the US would feel “a lot differently” about supporting the country.

Following Trump’s threat over aid, Milei’s party went on to win legislative elections in October with more than 40 percent ​​of the vote.