Dodoma, Tanzania – On a hot September day in Dodoma, Tanzania’s capital, chants and drumbeats filled Jamhuri Stadium as Zuwena Mohamed, a singer known as Shilole, took to the stage wearing the emblematic green of the governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

“We are seeking votes for our candidate, Mama Samia Suluhu Hassan — our mother — with all our effort and commitment,” the 37-year-old told the crowd, posting photos and videos to her 11 million Instagram followers.

Her account, filled with pro-government content including a profile picture of the president, goes beyond simple celebrity support. It is emblematic of an unfolding digital battle as Tanzania prepares to vote on October 29.

But social media platforms are also being used as spaces for dissent by those who view the election as rigged in favour of the governing party. Many expressing dissent are using anonymous accounts or pseudonyms out of fear of government reprisals.

Debates move online

More than 37 million people have registered to vote in the country of about 69 million. But two main opposition forces — Chadema party and ACT-Wazalendo’s main presidential candidate Luhaga Mpina — have been barred from the race, leaving President Hassan’s CCM, Africa’s second-longest-governing party, virtually unchallenged.

Chadema’s leader, Tundu Lissu, was arrested in April and now faces treason charges.

Rights groups such as Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International have said the exclusions are part of a wider crackdown on dissent through harassment, abduction, and censorship. The government has denied this (PDF). In a statement refuting a September HRW report, government spokesperson Gerson Msigwa said, “Concerns of diminishing civic space and restrictions on political parties to engage in political processes in the lead up to the general election are unfounded and misleading.” Msigwa said abductions were a “major” concern for the government and that it was committed to human rights, “good governance”, and fair elections.

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But as many Tanzanians fear speaking openly – including to Al Jazeera – due to potential government reprisals, political debates have increasingly moved online in a shift that Abel Kinyondo, a political researcher at the University of Dar-es-Salaam, said was “inevitable.”

“If you stop people from speaking openly, they will go online, where they can hide their identity and feel free to say things they wouldn’t dare say in public,” he told Al Jazeera.

‘Losing hope’

In a country with more than 49 million internet users and where more than half of the population is under 18, the legal voting age, TikTok has surged in popularity as a platform to express political views.

One TikTok user burned down a campaign poster of President Hassan this week to reveal a page with #MO29, which refers to a planned protest on election day. Another joked about the president receiving an award for “best leadership in the water sector” – Tanzania has faced water scarcity issues in recent months, leading to frequent water rationing.

On X, formerly Twitter, human rights activist Ananilea Nkya said on Monday, “I have never seen, during any election, so many citizens losing hope about the fate of their lives as this year.”

Tanzanians abroad have also weighed in on the debate, speaking with open criticism about the upcoming election.

Mange Kimambi, a US-based Tanzanian activist with 2.4 million Instagram followers, has urged Tanzanians to protest on election day, saying that reforms should have taken place, namely, an overhaul of the electoral commission.

Her calls for protest have been widely discussed on social media inside the country by Tanzanians calling upon one another to join the planned demonstration.

Without naming Kimambi specifically, the electoral commission has warned that discouraging citizens from voting may be a criminal offence, according to local media.

“Even those creating fake accounts, thinking they can hide, you cannot,” Deputy Police Commissioner David Misime said in a radio interview, referring to calls for protests on social media platforms, noting the authorities’ capacity to trace online activity.

Control of the digital landscape

On the other end of the political spectrum, CCM supporters — like former Miss Tanzania Faraja Nyalandu — are actively campaigning for the party’s reelection online. President Hassan is “a compassionate leader who truly works for the people,” Nyalandu told her 1.2 million followers in a recent Instagram video.

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“Young people support CCM because of the president’s efforts to empower youth,” Imani Masiga, the party’s digital head, told Al Jazeera, adding that influencers are not paid for their support.

He acknowledged that some celebrities may receive assistance for “transport or accommodation” at campaign events, but insisted most perform at rallies voluntarily.

He also said that CCM did not restrict online content.

“Criticism exists. We can’t expect everyone to support the president, and that’s OK,” said Masiga. “If you follow social media closely, you’ll see critics are still active and free. When criticism is constructive, we take it seriously.”

But for local digital rights group, Tech & Media Convergence (TMC), the party is doing everything it can to control information online.

“The digital landscape, which once held the promise of expanding civic participation, is now increasingly viewed as a site of intensified state control,” TMC said in a report (PDF) published this month, adding that there was “a systematic and intensifying campaign by state authorities to control the pre-electoral information environment”.

Since May, X has faced nationwide restrictions after government accounts were hacked, while YouTube has faced network disruptions. In August, the government ordered police to conduct “online patrols”, according to local media, to monitor those “who aim to disrupt the peace”, but did not give details on how those patrols would work.

And then in September, the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority suspended JamiiForums, a popular Tanzania-based social networking website, for 90 days, for posts that “disrespected” the government and the president, it said in a statement (PDF).

TMC’s report described the government’s crackdown on social and digital platforms as part of “escalating online censorship, surveillance, and regulatory pressure that threaten the integrity of the electoral process”.

“This is not a series of isolated incidents but a deliberate campaign to shrink civic space, silence dissenting voices, and manage public discourse at a time when access to information is most crucial,” it said.

TMC has warned that silencing independent voices and platforms has created an information vacuum that can be filled by state-driven narratives. That erosion of pluralism risks fueling voter apathy, its report said.

Few citizens now speak openly. One who did — Humphrey Polepole, a former CCM insider — accused the party of running a rigged election and claimed the electoral commission was politically compromised, according to local media.

Shortly after publishing his allegations on YouTube and Instagram, he was reportedly abducted from his home in Dar-es-Salaam on October 6. Police say investigations are under way.

In recent weeks, there has been an increased presence of police patrols on the streets across several cities — a sign of heightened security before possible demonstrations and the election.

Stakes beyond the screen

Analysts like Kinyondo urged CCM to focus less on controlling online narratives and more on delivering its promises, including creating more jobs and improving access to healthcare, education, water, electricity, and housing.

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With its strategic location and abundant natural resources, Tanzania – the East African region’s most populous country – has significant opportunities for sustainable and inclusive growth, according to the World Bank.

Yet economic transformation has slowed, and nearly half the population still lives below the $3-a-day poverty line.

“If CCM starts competing with social media users in creating propaganda, it’s like fighting a pig in the mud — you can’t win that battle,” said Kinyondo.

“The opposition should focus on opposing, while CCM should focus on implementing its manifesto and delivering on what it promised.”

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.