The Trump factor
The controversies and legislative hurdles have slowed La Libertad Avanza’s momentum going into the midterms, according to Carolina Barry, a political science researcher and co-editor of the Historical Dictionary of Peronism.
She sees the road ahead for the party as a rocky one.
“The government is facing this race in a state of considerable uncertainty, thanks to the many setbacks it has suffered in Congress and the accusations affecting the party,” Barry said.
Just this month, the research firm Nueva Comunicacion found the centre-left political party Fuerza Patria leading Milei’s La Libertad Avanza by 15 points ahead of the vote.
Experts also point to last month’s provincial-level elections in Buenos Aires as a bellwether for the midterms: La Fuerza Patria came out ahead in that race as well.
But despite the election-season challenges, Milei has found a powerful ally in President Trump.
The US president endorsed Milei on September 23, and a day later, the US Treasury announced it was pursuing a $20bn currency swap with Argentina to stabilise the value of its peso.
Those efforts were aimed at giving Milei a boost ahead of the midterm race, a fact Trump himself admitted.
But in doing so, Trump warned that the economic lifeline was contingent upon Milei’s success at the ballot box.
Trump’s threat sent the value of the Argentinian peso tumbling, after a brief rally following the news of the currency swap.
“Trump is supporting Milei, but then he says something else, and that is generating a lot of questions and uncertainty,” said Barry. “None of that is helping Milei at home.”
She believes it is likely that La Libertad Avanza will pick up some seats in the midterm election, but not enough to push through Milei’s reforms without coalition-building.