Canada’s governing Liberal Party has won national elections dominated by United States President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will keep the top job after projections showed his Liberals on course to win the most seats in the 343-member parliament, national broadcaster CBC and CTV News reported late on Monday.

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With the votes still being counted, it was not clear if Carney, a career economist and banker who cast himself as a champion for Canada in the face of Trump’s threats, would be able to form a majority government or need to rely on the support of a smaller party.

The result marks a stunning turnaround for the Liberals, which earlier this year trailed the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, by more than 20 points in opinion polls.

While Poilievre had hoped to capitalise on the widespread unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump’s return to the White House prompted a surge in patriotic sentiment in Canada and galvanised voters around the incumbent government.

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In the weeks leading up to the vote, the Conservatives’ lead evaporated and the Liberals entered the election as clear favourites.

During the election campaign, Carney touted his financial experience and pushed back aggressively on Trump’s trade salvoes and threats to turn Canada into the 51st US state.

“Donald Trump wants to break us so America can own us. It is our strength that the Americans want,” Carney, who previously led the central banks of Canada and the United Kingdom, told supporters at a recent campaign rally.

“They want our resources, they want our water, they want our land, they want our country. They can’t have it.”

As Canadians went to the polls on Monday, Trump repeated his broadsides against the US’s northern neighbour.

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago.”