Bangkok, Thailand – As Myanmar slowly recovers from the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that killed thousands in March, an even greater catastrophe continues to shape the nation’s future – this one man-made.

Myanmar remains gripped by a civil war and after four years of fighting the military regime finds itself increasingly encircled.

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But the impact of the earthquake could prove decisive for the conflict in the coming year.

Striking in Myanmar’s central Sagaing Region on March 28, the quake killed at least 3,649 people, with more than 5,000 injured and 145 still missing, according to figures from the military government.

The seismic shock flattened houses, factories, Buddhist pagodas, apartment blocks and brought down bridges and ripped up roads in Sagaing city and nearby Mandalay.

It also disrupted electricity supplies to factories producing munitions for the military, said Tin Lin Aung, a former major in Myanmar’s army who defected to the resistance movement in 2022.

In a clear sign that military supplies are stretched, bullet and artillery casings recently captured from government forces bear this year’s manufacturing date, Tin Lin Aung said.

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“When I was in the military, we used to joke that some of the bullets were older than us,” he said.

“Now they are being used straight away,” he said.

The reported interruption to the military’s ammunition production comes as areas the army still controls in Myanmar are surrounded on almost all sides by longstanding ethnic armed groups and newer armed opposition forces.

Despite this, the military maintains an iron grip on the country’s major cities and core critical infrastructure.

Hemmed into urban strongholds, the military has tried to reverse its losses through indiscriminate air strikes and burning villages in rural areas – a campaign the United Nations suspects involves war crimes.

‘More momentum than the military’

Sagaing city was devastated by the quake and it remains under military control, while much of the surrounding countryside is governed by a patchwork of resistance militias – such as the People’s Defence Force (PDF) – which are loosely coordinated by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG).

The NUG declared a truce in earthquake-affected areas until April 20, except for “defensive operations”, yet the military’s operations have continued.

According to the NUG, the Myanmar military’s aerial and artillery attacks killed at least 72 civilians between the quake striking on March 28 until April 8. Two more civilians, including a 13-year-old girl, died from bombing by military aircraft on April 10, the Myanmar Now news outlet reports.

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A Sagaing-based PDF fighter who requested anonymity said some rebel units had pivoted to relief efforts in central Myanmar even though their military adversaries were taking advantage of the lull in battle.

“Since the quake, the military has used the Sagaing-Monywa road more confidently because of the truce,” she said. But PDF forces in Sagaing expect fighting to intensify after the April truce is over.

“The PDF has more momentum than the military here,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that the NUG is now “coordinating better with ethnic armed organisations”.

“There will be more fighting in coming months,” said Ko Ko Gyi of the Sagaing PDF’s Battalion 3.

Regional security analyst Anthony Davis said he doubted the earthquake would distract the military from its strategic objectives, adding that most soldiers had stayed in their garrisons rather than help with relief efforts.

“The military isn’t taking time off to save people. They’ll keep up the air strikes and, where possible, launch ground offensives to weaken the PDF,” Davis said.

But it is western Rakhine State – largely spared from the earthquake – that is still the most consequential battleground currently, he said.

There, the rebel Arakan Army (AA) has clashed with the military’s forces around the state capital Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, the site of a key pipeline that transports gas from across Myanmar to China.

The AA has simultaneously pushed out of its home territory in the west of the country and into Myanmar’s central heartlands in Magwe, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions, Davis said.

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“They are the swing player who can significantly move this conflict one way or another,” he added.

Commanding an estimated 40,000 soldiers, the AA has a proven record of defeating the military regime’s forces.

In eastern Myanmar’s Kayah State, a senior resistance commander said the earthquake had underscored the suffering of displaced communities who “bear the brunt of the ongoing wars”.

“The side who’s willing to care for the people can sway public opinion and will succeed in the coming battles,” he said.

In the north and northwest, the military is on the back foot.

The Kachin Independence Army captured Indaw town in the northern Sagaing Region on April 7 after an eight-month siege, despite declaring its own post-quake truce. Chin resistance forces recently gained control of Falam township in western Myanmar – though they had not announced any ceasefire.

Political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said the military is still grappling with the aftermath of the earthquake and that may create openings for the AA and others to seize more towns.

“However, any such gains would likely be incremental, as the military’s longstanding control and ability to adapt, especially in regions like Bago and Magwe, even under crisis conditions remain significant,” he said.

“In the long term, the earthquake is unlikely to fundamentally shift the balance of power in Myanmar,” he said.

‘Divine intervention’

While the earthquake has not dealt a decisive blow to military rule, the quake has delivered a psychic shock to the regime’s generals.

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In a country where astrology and superstition guide the highest political decisions, many interpret the natural disaster as a cosmic rebuke against Myanmar’s military leadership.

“They see this earthquake as divine intervention – punishment for the mistakes of the king. From what I hear, they are not blaming him [regime leader Min Aung Hlaing] directly. But there are questions about his leadership and capacity,” said former major Tin Lin Aung, who still maintains contacts within the secretive military establishment.

According to Tin Lin Aung, the regime has ordered civil servants nationwide to recite a protective Buddhist chant nine times daily for nine consecutive days. The number nine has auspicious symbolism in Buddhist tradition.

He also described growing confusion within the ranks over the regime’s response to the earthquake – appealing for international aid and assistance, declaring a truce, while also continuing its attacks.

“They know the people hate them more and more, and their leader seems lost,” he said.

Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the International Crisis Group, said even if Myanmar military’s commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing dismisses these supernatural interpretations, the fact that his inner circle takes them seriously creates real vulnerability. Instead of causing an internal coup, he suggested the quake as a bad omen would more likely signal the erosion of Min Aung Hlaing’s authority and the rise of open criticism.

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“You go from there to people feeling they can just ignore his orders and do their own thing because everyone else agrees with them, not him,” he said.

Political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said some sources suggest that beliefs in the quake as a portent of collapse for military rule may be used to push the narrative that the regime needs to “act decisively to regain control”.

Superstition is just one of many factors shaping the military’s decisions in the conflict, he added.

The earthquake has also “done enormous damage to the basic fabric of Myanmar,” Horsey said, noting that Mandalay’s residents are potentially facing relocation due to extensive housing damage.

Given the scale of the quake, it would likely affect the civil war – “but in ways that are hard to predict”, he said.

Criticised for its ineffectual and disinterested response to earthquake victims, along with continued attacks at a time of national emergency, the military’s poor reputation has plummeted even further in the eyes of the people and its adversaries.

The powerful ethnic armed groups involved in the conflict will probably be even more unwilling to negotiate for peace with the military following the quake, Horsey said.

“Even if you could get a spirit of compromise, which seems not to exist”, few would believe the military’s sincerity in adhering to any peace deal or ceasefire document.

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“Who would believe that piece of paper,” Horsey said, when it is signed by a military that is considered “so illegitimate and so incompetent.”