Paris, France – On Sunday, an opinion poll predicted that Marine Le Pen, the longtime leader of the French far right, would secure up to 37 percent of votes in the 2027 presidential election, more than 22 points higher than in 2022 and 10 points ahead of any other candidate.
The “page has definitely turned”, said Frederic Dabi, the head of pollster Ifop Opinion.
Recommended Stories
list of 4 itemsend of list
He saw the poll as confirmation that Le Pen’s rebrand had worked. For years, she has sought to normalise the hard right and distance it from the rule of Jean Marie Le Pen, her late father who founded the National Front, a party that lived on the political fringes.
But on Monday, Marine Le Pen and her updated National Rally party were dealt a major blow.
She was convicted of embezzling European Union funds, disqualifying her from running for public office for five years – effective immediately.
Although Le Pen plans to appeal, the verdict prevents her from participating in France’s 2027 presidential election.
‘We’re very surprised in France’
The criminal court ruling in Paris has shocked France.
Advertisement
While Le Pen’s supporters are decrying the case as a political assault, her opponents are relieved to see the justice system’s independence prevail.
“We’re very surprised in France because it’s very rare for a politician to actually be convicted. It’s happened, but it’s still quite rare, especially at this level of notoriety,” Baptiste Colin, a 29-year-old theatre producer from Lyon, told Al Jazeera.
In recent years, voting for National Rally, or RN by its French initials, has become more typical across France, and Le Pen could appeal to voters by spinning the trial in her favour.
“I hope people understand the conviction. Ultimately, it’s quite simple: It’s a misappropriation of funds,” Colin said. “I think that the judges were quite unbiased. It’s expected that if you dip into the coffers, you will be convicted.”
The far right immediately pushed back against the court ruling.
Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 29-year-old protege, called her provisional sentence “a democratic scandal”.
“Le Pen’s line of defence is that it’s a scandal, and it was done on purpose, that it’s a coup d’etat,” Colin said. “It’s going to be a cultural battle between those on the far right who say it’s horrible and everyone else who thinks a conviction is normal.”
The verdict could potentially push France into more political chaos if the far right successfully exploits the narrative, analysts said.
“There is a risk that she will be seen as a martyr, as in the victim against the system. She and her party will weaponise this trial,” Rim-Sarah Alouane, a French researcher with a PhD in public law, told Al Jazeera.
Advertisement
Le Pen’s party runs on a platform against globalisation and immigration, pushing for stricter border control and fewer ecological policies.
The 56-year-old has vaulted new faces like Bardella, now party president, so that it resonates with younger voters.
Bardella, heir apparent?
Alouane said given the normalisation of the far right, she fears mainstream media and politicians could hand Le Pen and the RN undeserved space to criticise France’s legal system.
“Le Pen is a politician who has just been condemned by the justice system for a serious crime, and she’s already using one of the main news networks to defend herself,” Alouane said, citing Le Pen’s appearance on French TV channel TF1 on Monday evening. “We need to recentre the focus on what is at stake and not give Le Pen leverage to use this whole thing to solidify her position and her party’s in the mainstream.”
Following the verdict, Le Pen can run in 2027 only if she appeals and receives a more lenient sentence, but the appeals process is slow in France.
“It seems unlikely because it usually takes around two years to take an appeal to court,” Diane de Vignemont, a French journalist focused on politics and history, told Al Jazeera. “But if Le Pen loses her appeal, the RN will still be able to say that the court was corrupt and kept her from running. Then, Bardella will be the chosen one, the heir apparent.”
Bardella is considered the RN’s rising star and would likely step up to replace Le Pen as the party’s next presidential candidate if Le Pen’s conviction is upheld.
Advertisement
“It’s kind of exactly what the party needs,” de Vignemont said. “Bardella has really mastered social media. And he’s young enough that he doesn’t have too many scandals yet.”
He has helped the far right to gain a significant portion of young voters in France – in two years, the proportion of 18- to 24-year-olds voting for the RN in the French parliamentary elections doubled.
“There’s hype around the RN. Bardella is young and on TikTok, and there is this idea that it is cool to vote for the RN, whereas before it was considered old-fashioned,” Colin noted.
Should Le Pen succeed in expediting the case and win her appeal before the presidential election, she will likely feel emboldened to claim the case was a vendetta against her political agenda, observers said.
“She’s going to be able to run on a platform of, ‘They tried to get me over a political witch trial, and they failed because I was innocent,’” de Vignemont said.
Presiding judge Benedicte de Perthuis has already refuted that idea.
“No one is on trial for engaging in politics,” she said in a statement.
Colin said he expects the party will suffer because of the verdict.
“I think it’s a catastrophe for her and for the party,” he said. “I think Bardella is much less competent than Le Pen. He’s very young, and he’s not used to this. Bardella hasn’t done many debates yet, and those that he’s done haven’t come out in his favour. And I think Le Pen knows that Bardella has far lower chances of being elected than she does.”
Advertisement
The court ruling will not change Le Pen’s current role as a lawmaker in the French parliament – unless President Emmanuel Macron calls another round of snap elections, as he did in June 2024.
If so, Le Pen would not be allowed to run again. With current divisions and parliament’s inability to pass a budget, another dissolution is a possible scenario.
With Monday’s verdict, Le Pen has joined a club of other prominent French politicians accused of financial crimes.
Former President Nicolas Sarkozy is awaiting sentencing for accepting illegal presidential campaign contributions from Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Ex-Prime Minister Francois Fillon was convicted of fraudulently hiring his wife as a staff member when he was a member of parliament.
“There’s a judicial wind blowing against politicians. Personally, I think it’s great, and it shows processes work, and we’re still in a functioning democracy,” Colin said.