Canada’s Liberal leadership race: Who’s running to replace Justin Trudeau?
Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and ex-Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney are frontrunners, experts say.
By Jillian Kestler-D’AmoursPublished On 24 Jan 202524 Jan 2025
Montreal, Canada – The race to replace Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party – and as the country’s prime minister – is well under way, with seven candidates throwing their names into contention.
The leadership hopefuls had until Thursday evening to meet a deadline to formally submit their candidacies before the party picks its new chief on March 9. Canadian media outlets reported that it could take a few days to determine who will officially be in the running.
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The Liberals are hoping that a new leader will bolster their chances ahead of this year’s federal election.
Polls show they are currently on track to lose by a wide margin to the opposition Conservative Party: A recent Abacus Data survey had the Conservatives with 46 percent support compared with 20 percent for the Liberals.
It is unclear which candidate would give the Liberals the best shot at the polls.
But the vote could be called as soon as Canadian lawmakers go back to the House of Commons on March 24, as opposition legislators have pledged to try to topple the Liberal government at the earliest opportunity. The election must be held by October 20.
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Semra Sevi, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, said the race for the Liberal Party leadership has three credible candidates: economist Mark Carney and two former Trudeau cabinet ministers, Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould.
“However, Carney and Freeland are the clear frontrunners,” Sevi told Al Jazeera.
Here, Al Jazeera looks at the candidates vying to lead the Liberal Party, where they stand on key issues, and whether they will be able to help the party make up ground ahead of the next election.
Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada governor
Carney, 59, has tried to portray himself as a political outsider, putting distance between himself and the widely unpopular Trudeau.
The economist previously served as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and he acted as an economic adviser to Trudeau’s government. He currently holds a role at the United Nations as a special envoy on climate action and finance.
“Too many are falling behind. Too many young people can’t afford a home. Too many people can’t find a doctor,” he said during a rally to announce his Liberal leadership bid in Edmonton, the capital of Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta, on January 16.
According to Sevi, Carney’s experience as a former central banker gives him “substantial credibility on economic issues”, which have been a major concern for Canadians amid rising costs and a housing crisis.
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“He can position himself as an expert in managing inflation, housing affordability and financial insecurity,” she told Al Jazeera.
Yet on the flip side, Carney’s “lack of direct political experience could make him seem out of touch with grassroots concerns”, Sevi said. “His technocratic background may not translate easily into the kind of leadership voters expect during tough times.”
The decision to launch his campaign from his home province of Alberta – where residents typically vote for right-wing parties – was also noted by experts.
“The new Liberal leader will need to focus on regaining support in western Canada, particularly in Alberta,” Sevi explained.
In that vein, Carney has said he is open to alternatives to an unpopular federal programme that placed a price on carbon emissions.
The climate policy, introduced under Trudeau, is a top target of attacks from right-wing politicians, including Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who is hoping to make it a central election issue. With Trudeau leaving, it has become an early point of contention in the Liberal leadership race, as well.
Poilievre, a populist politician who has been in Parliament since the early 2000s, has used the nickname “Carbon Tax Carney” to blast the economist for his past support of the policy.
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“It’s clear that Carbon Tax Carney and the Liberals will say anything to try and hold power. But they cannot be trusted. Carbon Tax Carney is just like Justin,” the Conservatives said in a recent statement.
Despite those attacks, Carney has racked up endorsements from top Liberal ministers, including Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Minister of Emergency Preparedness Harjit Sajjan.
The backing of ministers from the French-speaking province of Quebec – where the Liberals typically draw a key segment of their support – may also prove critical for Carney, according to Jim Bickerton, a political science professor at St Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia.
“It’s always important that the Liberal leader have a strong support base in Quebec,” Bickerton told Al Jazeera.
In a new campaign video released on Thursday, Carney also hit back at Poilievre, comparing him to United States President Donald Trump, who has embraced anti-immigrant policies and regularly attacks the media and his perceived critics.
“You can’t stand up to Trump when you’re working from his playbook,” Carney says in the video.
“Pierre Poilievre has been a politician his entire life, and in all that time, he hasn’t fixed a thing. He just complains, misleads and blames everything on someone else.”
Chrystia Freeland, ex-deputy prime minister and finance minister
Freeland has been a key member of Trudeau’s inner circle since she was first elected to represent a Toronto electoral district – known as a riding – in 2015, the year the Liberals swept into power.
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Since then, she has held various high-profile government portfolios, including as deputy prime minister and finance minister.
But in a surprise move, Freeland announced in December that she was resigning from Trudeau’s cabinet.
In her resignation letter, she said she was stepping down because she and Trudeau were “at odds about the best path forward” for Canada in the face of a threat from Trump to impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods.
Her break from Trudeau is believed to have been a key factor in the prime minister’s decision to step down as Liberal leader.
Freeland had led the Canadian team tasked with renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during Trump’s first term as president, from 2017 to 2021 – and she has pitched herself as the best person to manage US-Canada ties with Trump in the White House again.
“If you hit us, we will hit back,” she said during her leadership campaign launch on January 19.
She also promised to “inflict the biggest trade blow that the United States has ever endured” if Trump follows through on his tariff threat.
A staunch defender of Ukraine amid Russia’s war, Freeland – who is of Ukrainian descent – has garnered endorsements from a number of Liberal MPs, including cabinet members such as Health Minister Mark Holland and Justice Minister Arif Virani.
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But with recent polls showing that Canadians want change after nearly a decade of Liberal rule, experts say that Freeland’s status as a former member of Trudeau’s team may hurt her.
“She’s been Justin Trudeau’s right-hand really for the duration of this government … She’s been a loyal soldier,” said Bickerton.
“And that’s probably a weak point because if, in fact, after 9.5 years, Canadians are ready for a change in direction or a change in government, then she doesn’t fit the bill because she’s very closely associated with the current government.”
Nevertheless, if chosen to lead the party, Freeland could try to appeal to the more progressive side of the Liberal base by highlighting her involvement in key social programmes over the past five years, Bickerton said.
“Oftentimes, the Liberals either win power or lose power based on how much of the [left-leaning New Democratic Party] NDP support they can draw to themselves,” he said. “I think Chrystia Freeland will probably stake her appeal to the Liberals on that basis.”
So far, she has attempted to break from some of the less popular policies pursued by the Trudeau-led government, including by promising to cancel the carbon pricing scheme for Canadian consumers.
“Where people have a consumer-facing price on carbon, they’re saying, ‘You know, we don’t like it,’” she said in a recent interview. “So we have to listen, and at the same time, we do need a strong plan to fight climate change.”
She has also argued that Trump’s “obvious dislike of her” is a strength, Bickerton noted.
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“She presents that as a positive thing, that she’s a tough negotiator, that she’s a strong woman who would be able to stand up to Trump in the current aggressive tariff war that’s looming.”
Yet, in the early days of the leadership race, the government’s record appears to be following her.
In a scene reminiscent of what former Vice President Kamala Harris faced during the 2024 US presidential election, Freeland’s campaign launch event was repeatedly interrupted by protesters denouncing Canada’s support for Israel amid the war in Gaza.
The demonstrators held up a banner that read, “Freeland: Our deputy PM gravedigger”, a reference to the more than 47,100 Palestinians killed in Israel’s 15-month bombardment of the enclave.
Karina Gould, ex-leader of the Liberal government in the House of Commons
The 37-year-old MP from Burlington, Ontario, has held various positions within the Liberal government since she was elected to Parliament in 2015.
Over her time in office, she has served as the minister of democratic institutions, minister for international development, and minister of families, children and social development. In the latter role, she helped implement a national childcare programme that cut daycare costs for Canadians.
In 2023, she was named leader of the government in the House of Commons – a cabinet role she resigned from earlier this month to launch her Liberal leadership bid.
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“We have a big challenge ahead of us. Canadians have lost trust in our party, and if we are going to be able to keep building our country, we must rebuild our party,” she said during a rally to launch her campaign on January 19.
“I became a Liberal at the age of 14 because I believe in Canada. I believe in who we are as a people. I believe in the promise that we represent for the entire world. The Liberal Party of Canada is not a hobby for me; it is not a side project.”
The youngest candidate in the race, Gould credited the “bold ideas of the young Liberals of Canada” with pushing forward same-sex marriage legislation, marijuana legalisation and reconciliation with Indigenous peoples.
She added that she wants to re-engage party members to bring new ideas forward and usher in a “new generation” of leadership.
According to Sevi, “Gould could attract attention from younger voters and those looking for a future-focused choice.”
The professor also noted that her fluency in French “gives her an edge” in Quebec, whereas Carney and Freeland are less proficient in the language.
“While Gould is unlikely to win this time, selecting her could be a smart long-term strategy. Regardless of who wins the leadership, the Liberals are unlikely to win in the 2025 election,” Sevi said.
If Gould does win the leadership race, she will become the youngest prime minister in Canadian history.
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Chandra Arya, Ottawa-area MP
Arya was first elected to Parliament in 2015 in the Ottawa-area riding of Nepean.
He said he launched his campaign for the party leadership to “lead a small, more efficient government with a cabinet selected on merit and not on DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] quotas”.
Those remarks appeared to echo an anti-DEI push seen in the US under Trump.
He also suggested he plans to cut government programmes and departments if they are not “relevant”; push back the retirement age by two years, and limit immigration to that which helps Canada meet its “economic growth needs”.
Arya recently faced widespread criticism for saying that people in Quebec won’t care if the next Liberal leader speaks French. Canada has both English and French as its official languages, and historically, the leaders of federal parties have made an effort to communicate in French.
“How’s your French?” Arya was asked in an interview with CBC News earlier this month. Arya replied: “No.”
When pressed on the importance Quebecers place on leaders speaking French, he added: “It’s not the language that matters; it’s what is delivered to them.”
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Arya’s stance amid Canada’s allegations that Indian government agents were involved in the killing of a prominent Sikh Canadian activist has also drawn scrutiny.
Originally from India, he has spoken out against what he calls “Khalistani extremists” – separatists pushing for an independent Sikh state in India’s Punjab province.
Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the NDP, criticised Arya late last year for “parroting the lines” of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
“This is someone who constantly repeats the lines of the Indian government – a government, mind you, that is under allegations that they’ve engaged in a campaign of terror impacting Canadians,” Singh said.
India has denied accusations it has targeted Sikh activists in Canada.
Jaime Battiste, Nova Scotia MP
Battiste has served as parliament member for Sydney-Victoria, a riding in the eastern province of Nova Scotia, since 2019. With his victory, he became the first Mi’kmaw person ever elected to Canada’s Parliament.
Chair of the Liberal Indigenous caucus and the parliamentary secretary to the minister of Crown-Indigenous relations, Battiste has said he is running for the party leadership to advance a collaborative vision of Canadian politics.
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“My vision has always prioritised protecting human rights, reconciliation and the environmental sustainability for future generations,” he said in a campaign video. “I believe in the good work that we’ve done … But I don’t believe the work is finished.”
He has expressed support for Canada’s national dental care plan. The programme was a key demand of the NDP, which had, until last September, been propping up the Liberal minority government.
He also said he backs publicly funded pharmacy care, affordable childcare, a national school food programme and comprehensive housing support.
“I believe these initiatives are essential in order to build and grow a just society,” Battiste, who previously worked as a professor and regional chair at the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), said on his campaign website.
Frank Baylis, Quebec businessman and former MP
Baylis was elected to the House of Commons in the Montreal-area riding of Pierrefonds-Dollard in 2015. He held the seat until the next election in 2019, when he chose not to run again.
“During that time, I championed Canadian innovation, supported human rights, and collaborated across party lines to address systemic challenges,” Baylis said.
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An entrepreneur, he also has touted his business experience over the past decades and said he intends to help tackle Canada’s affordability crisis.
“As your leader, I will focus on making life more affordable for families, addressing economic challenges head-on, and investing in Canadian industries and innovation to create good-paying jobs,” he said.
Ruby Dhalla, former MP
Dhalla represented the Toronto-area riding of Brampton-Springdale from 2004 to 2011, when she lost re-election. She was one of the first women of Indian origin to serve in Parliament.
In a recent interview, Dhalla stressed that she is the only candidate in the race who has no connection to the Trudeau government.
“The first act that I would do as the leader of the party is to ensure that we get back towards the centre, to the right of centre, because I think that is the need of the hour,” she said.
Describing herself as a “trailblazer, hotelier, philanthropist [and] motivational speaker” on her X page, Dhalla also touted her political and business experience.
“As a self-made businesswoman, I believe that I have a great understanding of the struggles and the sacrifices that business owners and entrepreneurs in our country are facing.”