United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was considering imposing a 10 percent tariff on imports from China, which could come into force as soon as February 1.

It was Trump’s latest trade threat against China, the world’s second-largest economy after the US, and Washington’s biggest geopolitical rival. During the campaign that ultimately led to his re-election, Trump threatened to impose up to 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, intensifying an ongoing trade war.

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Yet, if the intent of the proposed tariffs was to hurt Chinese exports, in a bid to push for US interests in their trade relationship, Trump’s threats — so far at least — appear to have had the opposite effect.

China’s overall exports, including to the US, have grown in recent months.

So why is Trump threatening China with tariffs, how are Chinese exports still increasing, and what is next in their trade tussle?

Why is Trump threatening China with increased tariffs?

On Tuesday, Trump argued that China was behind the supply of fentanyl to US neighbours, which he said was in turn responsible for a deadly addiction crisis in the country.

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A day earlier, he said he was considering imposing 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, alleging the countries were allowing “vast numbers of people” and fentanyl into the US. He also announced the creation of an “external revenue service” that would “collect our tariffs, duties, and all revenue that come from foreign sources”.

As 2024 came to a close, Chinese exports to US companies rose, growing by 4 percent between November 2023 and November 2024.

But more broadly, Trump has also accused China of unfair trade practices. China, the world’s largest exporter, has a massive balance of trade advantage with the US. In the first 11 months of 2024, Chinese exports to the US totalled about $401bn, while China imported approximately $131bn in goods from the US.

Have Trump’s tariff threats made a difference?

It appears so — just not the way the US might have wanted. As Trump’s inauguration approached, and the threat of tariffs on Chinese imports grew, US companies ramped up their purchase of Chinese goods to stock up before the import costs shot up.

In November 2024, Chinese exports to the US stood at $47.3bn, up from $43.8bn in November 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). That is an 8 percent increase.

Meanwhile, Chinese imports from the US dropped by 11.2 percent from $14bn to $12.4bn in November 2024 compared with November 2023. Simply put, amid Trump’s threats, the US trade deficit with China widened.

While US government data differs somewhat from OEC data, it points to the same trend. Between July and November 2024, US imports from China reached about $203bn, up 6.8 percent from $190bn over the same five months in 2023.

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China’s overall exports have boomed too. Last month, Chinese total exports hit record highs, up 10.7 percent in December compared with a year earlier, beating analyst estimates. Total exports for 2024 reached $3.58 trillion, a 5.9 percent increase from 2023.

China’s trade surplus soared to a record-breaking $992bn in 2024, representing a 21 percent increase from the previous year, as reported by the customs on Monday.

And there could be more bad news for the US.

“While this influx temporarily fuelled China’s trade surplus, the broader trade relationship has been undermined by US policies,” Carlos Lopes, a Chatham House associate fellow for the Africa Programme, told Al Jazeera.

“Escalation of tariffs and a continuation of unilateral measures could deepen the erosion of trust in the global trade system, further pushing China to diversify its partners and reduce reliance on the US market,” Lopes, whose areas of expertise include international trade and China, said.

“The current surge may offer short-term gains for both economies, but it highlights the fragility of a system increasingly dominated by trade wars and unpredictability.”

What is Trump’s tariff war?

Trump has announced plans for tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico since taking office, but many other countries worldwide are also bracing for similar measures.

He had initially launched a tariff war on China during his first term and by 2018, the US and China were imposing tariffs on one another.

While a truce to the tariff war between the US and China was announced in January 2020, Joe Biden eventually continued with Trump’s policies after he won the presidential election in 2020 — despite criticising them during his electoral campaign.

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In May 2024, the Biden administration reviewed Section 301 of the Trade Act and imposed higher tariff rates of 25 to 100 percent on some Chinese imports. Electric vehicles and solar cells were among the affected products.

“The Biden administration levy has tabled restrictions on trade and tech with China, which will be difficult for Trump to walk back on,” Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme and a China studies fellow at Indian public policy centre Takshashila Institution, told Al Jazeera.

China lost its position as the top trade partner of the US to Mexico in 2019, three years after Trump was voted in as president in 2016. As of November 2024, the top trading partners of the US were Mexico, with $69.1bn worth of total trade that month; Canada, with $61.8bn worth of total trade; and China, with $50.5bn worth of total trade.

“Trump sees tariffs as important, not just from an economic point of view, but also from a negotiating point of view,” Kewalramani said, adding, there might be tariff negotiations akin to those around January 2020. But they may not take place immediately, he said.

“The timing of tariffs is often subject to political manoeuvres and administrative processes, and the lack of transparency in these decisions undermines the predictability of the trade system,” said Lopes.

“Unilateral US actions, without consultation with trading partners or adherence to multilateral norms, create uncertainty for businesses and investors. This unpredictability not only disrupts supply chains but also weakens confidence in the rules-based global trading order, which is already under strain.”

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The tariffs aim to help the US climb out of its $1.9 trillion deficit. However, Lopes said, “Climbing out of the deficit requires more than tariffs or protectionist measures; it demands strategic investments in technology, infrastructure, and workforce development.”

What will US-China relations look like during Trump 2.0?

The US and China are the largest economies in the world. The US gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2023 was $27.36 trillion, according to World Bank data, against China’s $17.79 trillion.

What will happen in terms of tariffs during Trump 2.0 is unpredictable. “We’ll have to wait and see whether anything close to the 60 percent number is reached,” Kewalramani said.

Out of the 26 executive orders Trump signed on his inauguration day, one delays the enforcement of a ban on the popular short-video app TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, by 75 days. However, he has threatened to impose tariffs on China if it does not approve a potential US deal with TikTok, according to the Reuters news agency.

Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, which was attended by his deputy, Han Zheng. Kewalramani postulated that Trump and Xi will continue to engage, much like Biden and Xi, despite there being restrictions across the board on China from the Biden administration.

“China has already demonstrated resilience by diversifying trade partnerships and doubling down on domestic innovation. It will likely expand its Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and invest heavily in advanced sectors like green energy and technology to sustain its export competitiveness,” Lopes said.

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The BRI is a network of highways, ports and railroads that China is constructing. This global infrastructure is set to connect Asia better to Africa, Europe and Latin America.

“Importantly, China will benefit from the US’s unilateral approach, as it positions itself as a defender of multilateralism, creating new opportunities to fill the vacuum left by the US in global trade leadership. Instead of isolating China, US actions risk driving its further integration into alternative economic networks, weakening the very leverage the US seeks to maintain.”

How will consumers be affected?

“I do anticipate an increase in tariffs, but maybe not as big as 60 percent,” Kewalramani said, adding that high tariffs would amount to a “significant cost explosion for American consumers”.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, Trump’s tariff policy would boost inflation and shrink the economy, but there are caveats.

A CBO report in December on the effects of tariff increases projected a 1 percentage point rise in inflation by 2026, potentially costing American families an average of $1,560 per year, according to an assessment by The Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research centre at Yale.