Islamabad, Pakistan – The outlawed armed group Pakistan Taliban, known by the acronym TTP, has issued a warning to the Pakistani army, stating that it will continue targeting security personnel and expand its attacks to the military’s business interests.

In a statement issued on Sunday, the TTP pledged to go after various commercial enterprises run by the Pakistani military.

Among the companies the group named were the National Logistics Cell, a Rawalpindi-based logistics firm; the Frontier Works Organisation, which specialises in engineering and construction; Fauji Fertiliser Company, a fertiliser manufacturer; military-run housing authorities across Pakistan; a commercial bank; and several other entities.

The Pakistan Taliban warned civilians to divest from military-run organisations within three months, urging employees of these companies to find alternative sources of income.

The military has not issued any response to the Pakistan Taliban statement as yet. Al Jazeera also reached out to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing, for a response but did not receive a reply.

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Foreshadowing retaliation?

The TTP warning comes amid growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the group’s activities.

Last month, the Pakistani military launched air raids in Afghanistan, targeting alleged hideouts of the armed group.

Pakistan accuses the Taliban, which has ruled Afghanistan since August 2021, of providing safe havens for TTP fighters, allowing them to carry out cross-border attacks on law enforcement personnel within Pakistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan denies these allegations.

The Pakistan Taliban is ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. It was founded in 2007 during the so-called “war on terror” by the United States and has been waging a rebellion against the state of Pakistan for more than a decade.

The group’s demands include the imposition of strict Islamic law, the release of its imprisoned members, and a reversal of the merger of Pakistan’s tribal areas with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Since the Taliban’s ascension to power in Kabul, TTP activities in Pakistan have surged dramatically, with nearly 1,000 people — mostly security personnel — killed in 2023.

Violence persisted in 2024, which the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank, described as the deadliest year in nearly a decade.

According to CRSS, 2,526 people were killed in attacks last year — including nearly 700 security personnel, more than 900 civilians and some 900 armed fighters. These deaths represent a nine-year high, exceeding the previous peak record of 2,432 deaths in 2016.

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Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the CRSS, warned that the Pakistan Taliban’s warning should not be dismissed.

“They know full well that the Pakistani army is the linchpin against them in this fight, and their objective is to hurt the army and undermine its interests,” Gul told Al Jazeera.

Security researcher Abdul Sayed, based in Sweden, said the Pakistan Taliban’s statement signals a “significant policy shift” in the group’s strategy.

“Under Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of the TTP since July 2018, a policy was introduced to limit attacks primarily to security forces. However, recent air strikes in Afghanistan’s Bermal district, which also resulted in civilian casualties, likely led internal hardliners within the group to revise this approach,” Sayed told Al Jazeera.

TTP and Pakistan’s political divisions

While the timing of the Pakistan Taliban’s statement may align with escalating military operations, including a campaign launched in June last year, analysts suggest that the group is also exploiting the country’s political divisions.

Qamar Cheema, an expert on international affairs and executive director of the Sanober Institute, pointed out that known supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the country’s popular opposition party, recently promoted social media campaigns to boycott products from military-run businesses.

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The PTI, headed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, has accused the military of orchestrating his removal from power in April 2022 in collusion with the United States and his political rivals.

Since his ousting, Khan, who has been jailed since August 2023, and his supporters have maintained a critical stance towards the military.

After large-scale protests by PTI in late November, in which 12 party workers and supporters were killed, they launched a social media campaign urging citizens to boycott entities associated with the military’s business arm. The online campaign gained further momentum after Khan threatened to initiate a civil disobedience movement.

“If the PTI had not politicised state institutions, perhaps the TTP might not have been in a position to think of targeting this domain,” Cheema said.

In a news conference last year, ISPR chief General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry defended the military’s economic role, revealing that it had directly contributed more than 100 billion rupees ($359m) to the national exchequer in duties and taxes. He said military-affiliated organisations paid an additional 260 billion rupees ($934m) in taxes.

Sayed, the researcher, pointed out that the Pakistan Taliban seeks to capitalise on this fractured political landscape, where the military is facing regular criticism.

Return of urban violence?

Following its establishment in 2007, the Pakistan Taliban was responsible for some of the country’s deadliest attacks, including a 2014 massacre at Peshawar’s Army Public School, where more than 130 children were killed.

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Analysts worry the group’s new strategy could signal a return to widespread violence, particularly in urban areas.

Cheema said the Pakistan Taliban has recently threatened members of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

“We have seen the TTP targeting political parties before. However, this indiscriminate targeting of civilians will likely backfire, though I believe they may have the Afghan Taliban’s support,” he said.

Gul of the CRSS suggested that the Pakistan Taliban’s rationale is to pressure the military into halting cross-border strikes into Afghanistan.

“The tensions with the Afghan government stem from Pakistan’s hardline military strategy of launching air strikes on their soil. The TTP probably assumes that threatening attacks on commercial interests might dissuade the army from further aggression,” he said.

Sayed, though, believes that this policy shift will lead to expansion and scope of the conflict into urban areas.

“A key advantage for the TTP lies in its ability to generate funds, as businesses and individuals associated with them may resort to paying extortion to avoid being targeted,” he said.