In the early hours of Sunday morning, opposition forces declared Syria liberated from the rule of President Bashar al-Assad as opposition forces surged into the capital.

The former president in question reportedly fled Damascus, with no information yet as to which country will receive him.

The stunning collapse of more than 53 years of al-Assad family rule has been described as a historic moment – nearly 14 years after Syrians rose in peaceful protests against a government that met them with violence that quickly spiralled into a bloody civil war.

Just a week ago, the regime still maintained control over significant portions of the country. So how did it all unravel so quickly?

When did it start?

On November 27, a coalition of opposition fighters launched a major offensive against pro-government forces.

The first attack came at the front line between opposition-held Idlib and the neighbouring governorate of Aleppo.

Three days later, the opposition fighters took Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo.

Advertisement

Who did this?

Named Operation Deterrence of Aggression, this offensive was fought by several armed Syrian opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by allied Turkish-backed factions.

HTS – led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani – is the largest and most organised, having ruled the governorate of Idlib for years before this offensive.

Other groups that took part in the operation were the National Front for Liberation, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Izza and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, as well as Turkish-backed factions that fall under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army.

Has all of Syria fallen?

Probably. Although opposition fighters did not enter Lattakia and Tartous, coastal governorates – seen as al-Assad strongholds.

The rebels advanced quickly – within days, they took Hama and Homs, a city once dubbed “Capital of the Revolution” during the early years of the war.

On Saturday, Deraa – the birthplace of the 2011 uprising – also slipped from government control.

The Syrian army announced it was “redeploying and repositioning” in the province and nearby Sweida, but that seemed to come to nought.

The United Kingdom-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), said Syrian troops were withdrawing from positions in Quneitra, near the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.

Why did al-Assad fall so fast?

Syria was struggling as its economy tanked, reportedly propped up largely by an illicit trade in the psychoactive drug Captagon.

Advertisement

Al-Assad became hugely unpopular as people found it harder and harder to survive, including his soldiers, the majority of whom did not want to fight for him.

Soldiers and police officers were reportedly abandoning their posts, handing over their weapons, and fleeing ahead of the opposition advance.

Militarily as well, the al-Assad regime has been weak for years, relying on Russian and Iranian military support to prop it up.

But, analysts say, Russia is bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine and Iran and their Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been damaged by Israeli attacks – they could not come to the rescue of the faltering Syrian army.

Where is al-Assad?

Nobody knows where al-Assad is yet.

He and his Defence Minister Ali Abbas are both in unknown locations, according to Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, who told Al Arabiya news website that they had lost communication on Saturday night.

According to SOHR head Rami Abdel Rahman, al-Assad left Syria via Damascus international airport while it was secured by the army. Soldiers abandoned it shortly after and opposition fighters took control of it.

Has the whole government fled?

No, Prime Minister al-Jalali has stayed, speaking to the press early on Sunday to say he had remained to make sure things kept running.

Are Syrians happy?

Damascus, Homs and other Syrian cities erupted in celebrations as the departure of al-Assad was announced.

Images from Damascus captured opposition fighters firing into the air at sunrise. People climbed atop tanks in jubilation, amid crowds waving the flag of the revolution.

Advertisement

In some locations, people toppled statues of al-Assad’s father, Hafez.

Crowds gathered to pray together in mosques and to celebrate in public squares, chanting anti-Assad slogans and honking car horns.

What happened in Sednaya prison?

The opposition fighters have opened regime prisons along their advance, setting free the prisoners of conscience held inside.

HTS announced that its fighters had stormed the jail on the outskirts of the capital, declaring an “end of the era of tyranny in the prison of Sednaya”, a facility synonymous with the most notorious abuses of al-Assad’s regime.

SOHR confirmed that “the doors of the infamous Sednaya prison … have been opened for thousands of detainees who were imprisoned by the security apparatus throughout the regime’s rule”.

What happens next?

That remains to be seen.

Analysts point out that there is a lot of potential for Syria, just as there are a number of possible pitfalls if the various parties do not cooperate.

Al-Jalali said in a video statement that his cabinet is ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and hand over its functions to a transitional government.

“This country can be a normal country that builds good relations with its neighbours and the world … but this issue is up to any leadership chosen by the Syrian people,” al-Jalali said in a speech broadcast on his Facebook account.

HTS leader al-Julani said in a statement on social media that “public institutions will remain under the supervision of the prime minister until they are officially handed over”.

Advertisement