The charging of CIA official Asif Rahman for allegedly leaking US intelligence of Israeli preparations for retaliatory strikes on Iran in October has brought into open view the shadow war of espionage and counterespionage that has raged between actors locked in a regional conflict for decades.

The Iran-based Telegram channel Rahman is accused of leaking to disavows any connection with Iran’s government, but that the affair has embarrassed a US administration reeling from an earlier conviction of another of its officers, Jack Teixeira, for leaking Pentagon papers is undeniable.

The Rahman leak provides a glimpse into the murky interplay of Iranian, Israeli and US spy agencies that have helped shape the current conflict and, almost as importantly, our perception of it.

Catching spies

In late October, Israel’s internal security agency, Shin Bet, said it had arrested seven Israeli nationals living in occupied East Jerusalem on suspicion of carrying out espionage on Iran’s behalf.

A day earlier, another seven Israeli nationals in Haifa had been arrested on suspicion of aiding the enemy, in this case, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, in wartime.

Israeli police sources confirmed that more Iran-aligned cells operating in the country are suspected.

This isn’t new. In September, 73-year-old Israeli businessman Moti Maman was also accused by Shin Bet and the Israeli police of working with Iranian intelligence, allegedly offering to kill Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other political figures in return for an advance payment of $1m.

Conversely, Iran has arrested several of its citizens throughout Israel’s war on Gaza on charges of having collaborated with the Israeli spy agency Mossad.

An Iranian man walks past a huge anti-Israeli banner carrying pictures of missiles on Iran’s map, in Tehran, Iran, 19 April 2024 [Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA]

In December, Iran executed three men and a woman accused of acting on behalf of Mossad in Iran and undertaking acts, from sabotage to the kidnapping of Iranian security officials.

In September, in the wake of attacks attributed to Israel on the communications systems of Iran’s ally Hezbollah, Iran announced the arrests of 12 citizens on charges of collaborating with Israel and planning attacks in the country.

Espionage in a changing world

While electronic intercepts, surveillance and monitoring of social media have become valuable intelligence tools, human intelligence remains key to information gathering and military targeting.

“Human intelligence plays a significant role in the ongoing covert war between Israel and Iran,” Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said.

“Both countries are heavily engaged in intelligence gathering with espionage and counterespionage operations informing their broader strategic calculations,” he added.

The Israelis arrested in Haifa are accused of 600 to 700 intelligence-gathering missions for Iran over two years, including targeting a senior official – presumably for potential assassination similar to Israel’s high-profile assassinations, including that of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July.

“In Iran, Israel demonstrated its capabilities through a series of high-profile assassinations and sabotage missions, often attributed to Mossad’s deep penetration.

“On the other hand, Iran has made efforts to establish human intelligence networks in Israel, as highlighted by the recent arrests of several Israeli citizens accused of spying for Iran,” Toossi said.

Turning the tide

Israel with its small and generally cohesive society has long been considered almost impregnable by foreign spy agencies, defence analyst Hamze Attar said.

However, the strains of the current conflict, the rise of the extreme right and bitter divisions over the 2023 judicial reforms championed by Netanyahu have worked at pre-existing societal cracks, resulting in a fundamentally changed Israeli society.

An anti-American mural on the wall of the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran [File: Vahid Salemi/AP Photo]

It is into those divisions, analysts have suggested, that Iranian intelligence is making inroads.

That the first group of the 14 agents arrested in Haifa had immigrated to Israel from Azerbaijan 10 years ago and the second group was regarded as Arab Israelis and, therefore, slightly outside Israel’s mainstream is significant, according to Attar.

“This [was] huge,” he said.

“Israel has been thought of as … a single identity, one taught from an early age that they are under constant danger of attack from their Arab neighbours.”

“If Iran can turn these two groups” into acting on its behalf in Israel, “they can turn more,” he said.

Great games

Iran’s attempts to penetrate Israeli society are only recently coming to light while there has long been coverage of Israel’s use of covert intelligence on Iran.

Aiding Israel’s efforts is Iran’s sheer size with a population that dwarfs Israel’s at a scale of about 9.5 to 1 and social and political fault lines running through its society –  from protests against the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini for allegedly not wearing her headscarf correctly to minorities demanding more rights.

“Israel’s stated aim since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 is to foment the overthrow of the regime from within,” Ahron Bregman of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London said.

“That informs the way they work. Israel has had a long period to plan, to recruit and to structure their intelligence within Iran,” he said.

In contrast, Iran appears to have invested much of its long-term planning in assembling a network of allies, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which provide it with information.

Intelligence activities appeared to focus mainly on recruiting Palestinians working within Israel, where they often face prejudice, or relatively low-risk efforts to penetrate Israeli society via social media

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran in an operation linked to Israel [File: Mohammed Salem/Reuters]

In January, sources in Israel claimed Iranian intelligence had been looking to exploit popular anger over both the judicial changes and the unknown fate of the captives taken into Gaza to stoke dissent and persuade Israelis to photograph the properties of senior officials.

Nevertheless, “Israel’s intelligence operations within Iran appear significantly more developed and extensive,” Toossi said.

“The assassination of Iranian scientists, high-profile figures like Ismail Haniyeh, the sabotage of nuclear facilities and Israel’s proven ability to carry out strikes deep within Iran all highlight how effectively it has infiltrated the country’s most sensitive sectors.”

Chasing clicks

For Iran, planting demonstrably false stories intended for an opposing spy agency to pick up and publicise, only to then disprove and discredit the opposing agency, can be a powerful weapon in the battle for influence, analysts said.

“Iran has a record of planting false stories for Western outlets – including foreign-based Persian-language outlets with links to Israel and Gulf countries – to pick up, which it can then prove false and gain more credibility,” Veena Ali-Khan, a fellow at the Century Foundation, said.

“[There] were reports in Israeli media that [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier General Esmail] Qaani was dead or detained for espionage purposes before he was proved by Iran to be very much alive.

“Once again, state media emphasised that Western media … were completely wrong about Qaani, reinforcing their logic that Western outlets should not be trusted,” she said.

Deterrence

Controlling the public narrative can be as vital for maintaining deterrence as it can be for undermining your opponent, Bregman suggested.

“The Shin Bet and the police are publicising these arrests deliberately. It’s about deterring others,” he said, explaining a rationale at odds with the privacy-driven security services of popular imagination.

“They’re publicising their efforts. They’re letting people know that they’re there, they’ll catch them.”

Hezbollah drone footage claims to show surveillance over Israel [Screengrab]

Likewise, Toossi pointed out, the publicity surrounding the recent arrests masked numerous failures on the part of Israeli intelligence, not least its failure to foresee the devastating Hamas-led attacks of October 7 last year.

“It’s important to recognise that Israel and its supportive media often project an image of invincibility regarding Israeli intelligence that doesn’t always align with reality,” he wrote by email, noting that the timing of the well-publicised pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah in mid-September was forced upon Israel when concerns over the operation’s discovery gained ground within Mossad.

“Despite Israel’s tactical successes, the notion of Israeli invincibility in the covert realm or otherwise is greatly undermined by the country’s increasingly precarious strategic situation.

“Israel’s intelligence capabilities are formidable, but it is still facing sustained resistance and major challenges on multiple fronts,” he wrote.