The Palestinian territory, Sudan and South Sudan, as well as Mali and Haiti, have been identified as the top five places most likely to see deadly hunger levels in the coming months, according to a new report by United Nations food agencies.

The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme said in a joint report on Thursday that “acute food insecurity is set to increase in both magnitude and severity” across 22 countries and territories.

The Rome-based UN agencies warned that the spread of conflict, particularly in the Middle East – coupled with climate and economic stressors – was pushing millions of people to the brink.

The report spotlighted the regional fallout from Israel’s war in Gaza, with Lebanon also engulfed in conflict, and warned that the La Nina weather pattern could affect the climate through March next year, threatening fragile food systems in already vulnerable regions.

“Without immediate humanitarian efforts and concerted international action to address severe access constraints and advocate for the de-escalation of conflict and insecurity, further starvation and loss of life are likely” in those spots, it found.

Of “very high concern” are Nigeria, Chad, Yemen, Mozambique, Myanmar, Syria and Lebanon, it said. In those countries, conflict was either a key driver of hunger, or a contributor.

With its focus on the most severe and worsening countries, the UN agencies said the report did not “represent all countries/territories experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity”.

The agencies said 2024 marked the second year of declining funding for humanitarian assistance, while 12 appeals faced funding shortfalls of more than 75 percent, including for Ethiopia, Yemen, Syria and Myanmar.

Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, October 28, 2024 [Mohammed Salem/Reuters]

Gaza

A surge in hostilities in the Gaza Strip has raised concerns that the “worst case scenario” of famine will materialise, said the report.

It estimated that 41 percent of the population, or 876,000 people, will face “emergency” levels of hunger from November until the end of April.

Nearly 16 percent, or 345,000 people, will experience the most serious “catastrophic” levels.

As of mid-October, 1.9 million people in Gaza have been displaced, the report said.

Sudan

In Sudan, hundreds of thousands of people displaced by conflict will face famine in the Zamzam camp in North Darfur, predicted the report.

In South Sudan, the number of people facing starvation and death is projected to have nearly doubled in the four months between April and July 2024 compared with the same period last year.

But those numbers are expected to worsen from next May with the lean season between harvests.

More than a million people have been affected by severe flooding this month in South Sudan, found the report, a chronically unstable country plagued by violence and economic stagnation.

Haiti and Mali

The ongoing unrest in Haiti due to gang violence, together with an economic crisis and hurricane activity means that critical levels of hunger are likely to worsen in the impoverished Caribbean state, the agencies said.

Escalating conflict in Mali, where the UN withdrew its peacekeeping mission in 2023, will likely worsen already critical levels.

Armed groups are imposing blockades on towns and roads, impeding humanitarian aid, the agencies said.

The direct and indirect effects of conflict on food insecurity are vast, found the report, going well beyond the destruction of livestock and crops.

Conflict forces people to flee their homes, “disrupting livelihoods and income, limiting market access, and resulting in price fluctuations and erratic food production and consumption”, the report said.

In regions of high concern, extreme weather caused by the possible recurrence of La Nina – a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that can trigger heavy downpours or worsen droughts and heatwaves – could exacerbate hunger conditions, said the report.