In the midst of a punishing drought and a massive drop in diamond revenue, up to 1 million eligible voters in Botswana are heading to the polls in a tense general election on Wednesday.

Africa’s longest-serving democracy is considered one of the continent’s most stable countries, having peacefully transitioned power in all elections since independence from Britain in the 1960s. However, there are fears this time that there might be post-election violence.

“There are tensions in the country due to the shifting political landscape,” election observer Tendai Mbanje of the African Centre for Governance Election Observation told Al Jazeera. “Unlike in the past, there is increased political competition.”

The landlocked southern African country runs an indirect election system: Voters will elect parliament members. The head of the governing party at the end of the vote count is then appointed as president for the next five years.

Blessed with precious stones and the world’s second-largest diamond reserves after Russia, Botswana has abundant natural wealth. It also boasts the world’s largest elephant population.

Although slightly larger in size than France, Botswana’s population is less than 4 percent of France’s. There are only 2.5 million people spread sparsely across the country which has the Kalahari Desert covering much of its territory.

Still, Botswana is influential in the region. Gaborone, the capital, hosts the headquarters of the regional economic bloc – the Southern African Development Commission (SADC). At this year’s Paris Olympics in June, athlete Letsile Tebogo also became the 200-metre men’s champion, further stamping Botswana as a force on the international stage.

The country is a secular state, although most people are Christian. English and Setswana, spoken by the majority Tswana group, are the official languages. A person from Botswana is a Motswana, while the people of Botswana are collectively called Batswana.

Here’s what to know about the October 30 polls:

People line up to vote in Botswana’s 2019 general election in Gaborone [File: Jerome Delay/AP]

How does voting work?

Voters will elect 61 members of the National Assembly and 609 local council seats in the 16 local authorities across the country.

Legislators are elected through a first-past-the-vote or preferential system.

In turn, the political party with the most seats will elect the president.

Botswana is a multi-party state, but the governing Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has dominated the polls since 1969. The party secured 38 of 57 seats in the 2019 general election and is set to sweep the polls again come Wednesday.

Who is running?

President Mokgweetsi Masisi

Representing the BDP, 63-year-old Masisi is taking one more, final, swing at the presidency. He is the favourite to win because of his incumbency and the BDP’s 58 years of dominance. The party is increasingly weakening from internal frictions but it still has a strong support base in the rural population and the Tswana-majority ethnic group.

Masisi was vice president to former President Ian Khama who, upon the expiration of his term, handpicked Masisi in 2018. However, the two politicians fell out once Masisi took office, leading to Khama exiting the party along with his loyalists. Khama accused Masisi of betrayal for undoing his policies, including lifting a ban on trophy and elephant hunting in the country as well as decriminalising homosexuality.

Masisi ran as president in the 2019 election and won. His term has been shadowed by his tussle with Khama, which is fracturing the BDP internally as factions emerge. A global downturn in the price of diamonds in recent years has also reflected badly on the president, with many blaming him for rising inflation and unemployment at home.

Internationally, Masisi has ruffled feathers for his stance on elephant hunting. In April, he threatened to send 20,000 elephants to Germany after the European country attempted to ban trophy imports. However, the president won praise at home last July after re-negotiating a long-term agreement with mining company De Beers to increase by 100 percent the shares of the rough diamonds Botswana gets from their joint partnership.

Although the country has always enjoyed peaceful elections, struggles within the BDP and increasing anger against President Masisi’s economic policies are causing fear among Batswana about possible post-election tensions.

Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi [Tendai Marima/Al Jazeera]

Duma Boko

The 54-year-old lawyer leads a coalition of opposition parties under the banner of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).

The UDC coalition significantly challenged the BDP in 2019 to come second with 15 seats.

Boko remains the biggest threat to Masisi now, as a usually weak Botswana opposition becomes increasingly popular, leading some local analysts to speculate that the result might be too close to call, although many disagree.

Boko’s UDC is promising more lucrative jobs to young people and has tried to woo voters with the promise of government stipends.

Dumelang Saleshando

Saleshando, 53, is the leader of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), another of the main opposition parties.

The BCP has won between 10-20 percent of the vote in previous elections.

The party has promised to “save Botswana” and committed to offering an average monthly living wage of 4,000 pula ($299) by 2029, up from the current 1,500 pula ($112).

Mephato Reatile

Reatile is the leader of the Botswana Patriotic Front, one of the newest parties with only four members in parliament. The party was formed by followers of ex-President Khama after his exit from the BDP.

Khama returned from a three-year self-imposed exile to South Africa this September to back the party, in the hopes of removing the BDP and his rival, Masisi, raising the levels of tension around the election.

The former leader also appeared in court on charges of illegal gun possession and money laundering upon his return, sparking more controversy.

Analysts, however, say that the fears of possible violence being reported in local media are exaggerated. “The elections will be a tight contest but there are no expectations of a violent election,” election observer Mbanje said.

What are the key issues?

Diamond shocks on the economy

Botswana rapidly rose from being a low-income to a middle-income country in the 1970s, thanks to diamond sales, which make up 80 percent of exports. Its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is pegged at $7,250, one of the highest on the continent. In comparison, The Gambia, with a similar population, has a per capita GDP of $800.

However, more nuanced economic indicators tell another side of the story. A lack of diversification from diamonds, which it exports in the raw, unprocessed form, has caught the economy on the back foot amid a global fall in diamond prices in recent years. The price crash is caused by a more intense demand for much cheaper synthetic or lab-grown diamonds which are edging out demand for the real stuff in key markets like China and the United States.

Debswana, the company jointly owned by Botswana and mining firm De Beers, saw sales plunge by 47 percent in the first half of 2024. There are fears of mass retrenchment in mining supply chains, and inflation is now hitting Batswana hard.

Botswana’s President Masisi holds a 2,492-carat diamond that was unearthed at one of its mines in August [AP Photo]

Unemployment and inequality

Unemployment remains significant at 27 percent despite Botswana’s wealth.

The country, like its Southern African counterparts, also remains one of the more unequal societies, with vast gaps between the rich and poor.

Those inequalities date back to colonial-era ownership of cattle which made some parts of society much richer. Successive governments have also failed to split the revenue from diamonds more evenly among the population.

Drought and conservation

Climate-change-induced higher temperatures mean Botswana is increasingly experiencing severe droughts that affect food production and water supply, This, in turn, threatens livelihoods and has driven more than 10 percent of the population into chronic food insecurity, according to the United Nations relief agency, OCHA.

Crop yields are declining, with cereal production in the 2022-2023 season reaching just 23 percent of the national requirement amid the erratic rainfall season. In July 2023, Botswana declared a state of emergency due to drought.

That is also pressuring the country’s abundant animals. President Masisi is vocal on the country’s need to sell off elephants for revenue and allow for their hunting, to reduce their numbers and thus, feeding pressures, but this is a controversial stance that has earned him condemnation from international animal conservation groups.

Democratic gains and constitution review

Many of Masisi’s detractors accuse him of stifling dissent and undoing democratically passed laws, such as the trophy hunting ban. However, analysts point out that under Masisi’s government, Botswana has maintained a stable democracy.

“The accusations of dictatorship from detractors are a result of frustration of the pending constitutional review process that Masisi’s government is seen to have not delivered,” Mbanje said, referring to a three-year-long constitution amendment process that was approved this year but has not taken full effect.

The new regulations are set to bar retired presidents from holding other high positions, prevent dual-country citizens from election to parliament, change the composition of the country’s judicial services agency and tighten protections for the LGBTQ community.