It’s only August, but Tunisians already know the choice that faces them in October’s presidential election.

Earlier this week, the country’s electoral commission ruled that out of 17 candidates who submitted their names to run, only three had been approved – including President Kais Saied.

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Tunisia’s President Saied sacks prime minister

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His two rivals are Zouhair Magzhaoui, who previously supported the president, and the lesser-known Ayachi Zammel, the head of the Azimoun party.

Expectations for both are limited.

However, to critics and rights groups, the forthcoming election is speeding the rate of Tunisia’s authoritarian drift, as more and more potential contenders for the presidency have been arrested, prosecuted and barred from running.

Clearing the field

As recently as last week, a Tunisian court sentenced four potential presidential candidates, politician Abdel Latif Mekki, media personality and activist Nizar Chaari, judge Mourad Massoudi, and another candidate, Adel Dou, to jail on charges of vote buying.

A month earlier, opposition candidate Lotfi Mraihi of the Republican Union Party was jailed after being found guilty of money laundering, joining a growing list of activists and party leaders from across the political spectrum languishing in jail – from Abir Moussi, an adamant supporter of former leader Zein El Abidine Ben Ali, who was overthrown in a 2011 revolution, to her nemeses from the “Muslim Democrat” Ennahdha party, such as former speaker of parliament Rached Ghannouchi.

Moussi was sentenced to two years in prison two days after she submitted her presidential candidacy papers earlier this month.

“The Tunisian authorities’ disrespect for human rights and their crackdown against opponents must stop,” rights group Amnesty International said in early July.

“From arbitrary arrests of critical journalists, lawyers, activists and politicians to the systematic undermining of judicial independence, authorities must reverse this repressive path to put human rights front and centre of government.”

Despite serving only one term, former law professor Saied’s time in office has been dramatic.

Capitalising on widespread dissatisfaction with the previous government, he used his status as a political outsider to push through a new constitution that gave him more power, oversee the election of a new parliament subservient to him, hobble the judiciary’s independence, and instigate the widespread arrest of his opponents – all while conducting a racially charged crackdown on thousands of Black refugees and migrants in Tunisia.

“Saied has always relied upon repression, but it’s definitely accelerating as we get nearer the election,” Tunisian essayist Hatem Nafti said from Paris, where he now lives.

“It’s not really that he’s worried about losing,” he said about the president, who remains relatively popular within Tunisia, “it’s that neither he nor his allies in the judiciary and security services can really stand to be challenged publicly.”

The result, according to Nafti, has been the creation of branches of the state whose leadership operate so far beyond their remit that their political and legal survival has become dependent upon that of the president.

“This isn’t the same as under Ben Ali,” Nafti continued. “Back then, these functions were part of a system. Now, they’re reliant upon one person remaining in power or having his supporters risk jail.”

Authoritarian drift

According to analysts at the Washington-based NGO, Freedom House, the decline in political liberty under Saied has been dramatic.

“Since President Saied’s power grab in July 2021, Tunisia’s score in Freedom in the World has dropped by 20 points and the country has fallen from the Free category to the Partly Free category in our global ranking,” Cathryn Grothe, Freedom House’s research analyst for the Middle East and North Africa, said. “Tunisia has witnessed one of the largest score declines globally over the past five years.”

In particular, Freedom House pointed to Tunisia’s decline in civil liberties, not least measures to curb freedom of expression within the country, including the introduction of Decree 54, which has criminalised the spreading of information the government deems to be false.

So far, the decree has been used against Moussi, after she criticised the country’s electoral authorities, and lawyer Sonia Dahmani, over a sarcastic comment she made during a television discussion.

Silencing the media

Tunisia’s journalists and online critics have been disproportionately targeted by the legislation. According to the Syndicat National des Journalistes Tunisiens, more than 39 cases have been brought against journalists, critics and social media users since May 2023.

In addition to prosecution under Decree 54, authorities have also relied upon the country’s 2015 anti-terrorism law – itself widely criticised by rights groups upon its introduction.

The outcome has been chilling. A report issued by Human Rights Watch (HRW) earlier this week referred to Tunisia’s “hollowed out” media landscape, with the political coverage and discussion programmes that formerly held the government to a degree of accountability replaced with entertainment and lifestyle programmes.

“Tunisian authorities’ harsh crackdown on journalists has really left room for nothing but official narratives on the airwaves,” Bassam Khawaja, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Division at HRW said.

“Tunisians should be benefitting from vigorous debate and independent perspectives ahead of the elections, instead they are getting censorship and intimidation of the press.”

Public accountability for the government is negligible and what little remains is under threat. In July, a legal representative of the online platform Nawaat was summoned by police for questioning, while another platform, Inkyfada, saw one of its founders arrested and jailed in May.

Within Nawaat, the sense of resignation is palpable.

“We don’t think that this could be the beginning of a campaign targeting Nawaat since the attacks against us have never stopped,” Editor-in-Chief Aymen Rezgui said, going on to detail Nawaat’s regular confrontations with Tunisia’s authorities.

“Not to mention the cyber attacks targeting our website or the defamation and lynching campaigns on social networks orchestrated by the regime’s supporters.”

Nevertheless, despite the more repressive atmosphere, there is little appetite among Nawaat’s staff to change tack. “Whatever the circumstances, Nawaat will not change its editorial line and will never stop playing the role of driving force for independent alternative media,” Rezgui said.

“Operating from Tunis or abroad is just a detail,” Rezgui added. “The most important thing is to continue doing our journalistic duty because the Tunisian people, [and] Tunisia, need it.”