When the deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled Dhaka by military helicopter on August 5, following weeks-long deadly protests against her government, there was little doubt about where she was headed.

India has supported Hasina and it is where she spent many years in exile after almost her entire family was assassinated in 1975.

When Hasina landed at an air force base near New Delhi, she was received by none other than Ajit Doval, the head of the Indian security establishment who oversees the external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), which has been accused of meddling in the internal affairs of Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries.

Hasina resigned after weeks-long protests that killed nearly 300 people. She is reportedly seeking asylum in the West and will likely stay in India for “a while”, according to local Indian media.

Bangladesh is currently being led by an interim government under Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus.

There are already signs of frostiness between the two neighbours in the wake of Hasina’s resignation. Following her departure, non-essential staff from India’s high commission have been withdrawn from Bangladesh, according to local Indian media.

Setback

The events that led to Hasina’s overthrow are perceived as a major setback for India, which shared strong diplomatic and trade relations with Dhaka under Hasina, and in whom India had invested a lot in recent years.

Hasina had been a valuable ally that helped undo – to some extent – the security, logistical and political nightmare created by the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan.

After partition, to India’s east lay East Pakistan, later renamed Bangladesh in 1971 after a bloody war of independence led by Hasina’s father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

Following the birth of Bangladesh with India’s help, challenges grew for India as the new nation vacillated between a secular democracy and an Islamic republic like Pakistan.

India always perceived any shift towards Pakistan’s values as a threat.

In the late 1970s, India faced a national security challenge with a Zia on the left and a Zia on the right – meaning Pakistan under General Zia-ul-Haq and Bangladesh led by General Ziaur Rahman.

Rahman, who founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was assassinated in 1981. His wife Khaleda Zia ruled the country sporadically until 2006. It was much to India’s relief when in 2009 Hasina and her Awami League party, which represented a secular democracy where minorities like Hindus, Bangladesh’s largest minority faith, felt protected, came to power.

In the last 15 years, Hasina rebuilt roads linking Dhaka with Kolkata and Agartala in India that were severed after 1947. She built bridges, re-established railway links and facilitated easy access of cargo ships on the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries, bringing the two countries closer. Security cooperation increased between India and Bangladesh and Hasina helped India quell rebellion in the northeastern Indian state of Assam by refusing to provide safe refuge to rebels from across the border.

Proximity between the neighbours

Although Hasina had an excellent relationship with China, too, she managed to convey to India that its interests came first. She had recently said, for example, that she preferred India over China for a $1bn river development project.

However, what really tightened the relationship between India and Bangladesh was a deal struck between Hasina’s government and the Indian Adani Group in the power sector.

The agreement would see Bangladesh receive coal-based power from a $1.7bn plant in Jharkhand, India. But the deal generated unease within the opposition, as Bangladesh would be paying higher tariffs than what it would pay for other sources.

Moreover, there was disquiet over the deal as any agreement with Adani was also seen to earn favour with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“It was not a secret to the AL [Awami League] that Adani was closely tied with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and a business deal that favours Adani would ultimately bring political favour from Modi to [the] AL government,” Saimum Parvez, research fellow of the department of political science of Vrije University in Brussels, told Al Jazeera in 2023.

A view shows a mural of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina vandalised by protesters a day after her resignation [Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters]

An ally clinging to power

India, therefore, recognised the importance of securing its precious ally, Hasina, and her government in Dhaka.

Back in January, there were allegations of Indian interference in Bangladesh’s elections to keep Hasina in power.

Hasina had become increasingly authoritarian, arresting and targeting opposition members, and cracking down on dissent and free speech.

Many observers including the United States said the elections were “not free or fair” given that the main opposition, the BNP, did not participate.

When Hasina secured a fifth term in the controversial poll, India, along with Russia and China, congratulated her on her victory.

When Bangladesh’s student demonstration against job quotas for the families of freedom fighters turned violent and became a nationwide call for her resignation, the authorities responded with a harsh crackdown.

Indian security experts told this journalist on condition of anonymity that the Indian security establishment thought Hasina and her control over the army would ensure that the upheaval would not spin out of control.

There had been occasions, however, when India tried to reach out to the opposition so that it was not left on in the cold if Hasina’s government were to be thrown out of office. But according to sources speaking to the Indian Express newspaper, Hasina would not allow any Indian high commissioner to talk to BNP leader Khaleda Zia. Hasina allegedly zealously guarded not just her friends, but also who they spoke to.

Turning point

What many strategic experts on security issues Al Jazeera spoke to, including those in the diplomatic community, were reluctant to say was that much of the harm done to India’s interests was of its own doing.

That is, ever since India’s foreign policy was driven by the same forces that are trying to shift India from being a secular constitution-based democracy to one which is guided by the Hindu faith, New Delhi has been losing friends.

In 2021, when Modi visited Dhaka, protests against the prime minister erupted leaving at least 12 dead. Bangladeshis were protesting anti-Muslim discrimination in India and policies such as a controversial law which allows a citizenship pathway for minorities but excludes Muslims.

“This was the turning point of our relationship with Bangladesh,” a retired intelligence official who did not want to be named said last week. “Local people just got turned off India’s shift away from constitutional secularism.”

Protesters climb a public monument as they celebrate the news of Hasina’s resignation in Dhaka, Bangladesh on Monday, August 5, 2024 [Rajib Dhar/AP]

What will India do?

At the face of it, the biggest worry for the Indian diplomatic establishment would be the return of a right-wing BNP government under Khaleda Zia in Bangladesh that could attempt to marginalise the Awami League. There are fears that such a government could affect the Hindu minority, which accounts for about 8 percent of the country of 170 million and traditionally supports the Awami League.

Some Indian news outlets have been pushing claims that Pakistan and China were behind the protests, as well as exaggerating the scale of attacks Hindu minorities have experienced in the wake of the protests. Anti-Muslim coverage has pushed the narrative that Pakistan wants to turn Bangladesh – a Muslim country that upholds secular principles – into an Islamic state.

Al Jazeera has independently verified that since Hasina’s removal two Hindus have been killed – a police officer and an Awami League activist – and several Hindu households in the country have been attacked and looted. A Hindu leader told Al Jazeera attacks that have been politically motivated, not communal.

Still, there have been numerous reports of attacks targeting Hindu households, temples and businesses. The interim cabinet said its in first official statement on Sunday that attacks “have been noted with grave concern”. It said it would “immediately sit with the representative bodies and other concerned groups to find ways to resolve such heinous attacks”.

Student protesters in Bangladesh are trying to prove fears of religious violence unfounded by protecting Hindu temples and houses from being vandalised. Instagram is full of pictures of young students guarding shrines in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country.

But any violence targeting Hindus would only help the hardliners in India’s governing BJP who may claim vindication that the Hindus and Muslims cannot live together and justify bringing in the citizenship law.

India has a lot riding on Bangladesh, including annual trade worth $13bn. The countries were also due to start talks for a free trade agreement.

With Hasina now out, India has lost influence in the country and it would prefer for there to be no elections for now. That may not happen with exiled BNP opposition leader Tarique Rahman due to return to Bangladesh, according to his party.

“The time-tested diplomatic response to this should be that we are waiting and watching to see how things will develop and to reiterate our friendly sentiments for the people of a close and important neighbour,” Shyam Saran, the former foreign secretary, said writing in the Indian Express newspaper.

Indian political parties are largely with the government on this. At an all-party meeting, the government was given a carte blanche for dealing with the situation in Bangladesh. The big question is: Does the Indian government have a clue what to do next in Dhaka?